Monday, August 18, 2008

Forex candlestick chart patterns With Sigma Forex




This article provides insight into Candlestick patterns that can be extracted from Foreign exchange charts. A candlestick chart is a style of bar-chart used primarily to demonstrate price movements over a certain time period.
DojiA name for candlesticks that provide information on their own and feature in a number of important patterns. Dojis form when the body of the candle is minimal as market's open and close are virtually equal.
HammerA price pattern in candlestick charting that occurs when the market trades significantly lower than its opening, but rallies later in the day to close either above or close to its opening price. This pattern forms a hammer-shaped candlestick.
Inverted hammer A price pattern in candlestick charting that occurs when a security trades significantly higher after its opening, but gives up most of all of its intraday gain to close well off of its high. Gravestone - The market gaps open above the previous day's close in an uptrend. It rallies to a new high, then loses strength and closes near its low: a bearish change of momentum. Confirmation of the trend reversal would be an opening below the body of the Shooting Star on the next trading day. If the open and the close are identical, the indicator is considered a Gravestone Doji. The Gravestone Doji has a higher reliability associated with it than a Shooting Star.
Shooting star A candlestick indicating a reversal. The previous day's candle has a very large body. On the day the shooting star occurs, the price (generally) opens higher than the previous day's close, then jumps well above the opening price during the day, but closes lower than the opening price.
Three white soldiers Three white soldiers is a bullish reversal pattern that forms with three consecutive long white candlesticks. After a decline, the three white soldiers pattern signals a change in sentiment and reversal of trend from bearish to bullish. Further bullish confirmation is not required, but there is sometimes a test of support established by the reversal.
Three black crows A bearish reversal pattern consisting of three consecutive black bodies where each day opens higher than the previous day's low, and closes near, but below, the previous low.

The Australian Dollar With Sigma Forex




The Australian dollar is a commodity-based currency and is currently the sixth most traded currency in the world currency market (behind the US dollar, the euro, the yen, the British pound and the Swiss franc).
It accounts for approximately 5% of the total volume of foreign exchange transactions (approximately 1.9 trillion dollars a day). Its popularity is due to the fact that there is little government intervention in the currency and a general view that Australia has a stable economy and government.
For much of its history, the Australian dollar was pegged to the British pound however, that changed in 1946, when it was pegged to the US dollar under the Bretton Woods system. When this system broke down in 1971, the AUD moved from a fixed peg to a moving peg to the US dollar. Then in September 1974, it moved to a moving peg against a basket of currencies called the TWI (trade weighted index) because of concerns about the fluctuations in the US dollar. This continued until December 1983, when the then Labour government under Prime Minister Bob Hawke and Treasurer Paul Keating “floated” the Australian dollar. The Australian dollar is now governed by its economy’s terms of trade. Should Australia’s commodity exports (minerals and farms) increase then the dollar increases. Should mineral prices falls or when domestic spending is greater than exports, then the dollar falls. The resulting volatility makes the Australian dollar an attractive vehicle for currency speculators and is the reason why it is one of the most traded currencies in the world despite the fact that Australia only comprises 2% of the global economic activity.
Over the last 23 years as a free floating currency, the Australian dollar has usually served as a proxy for gold due to the fact that Australia is the second largest producer of gold after South Africa. Fluctuations in the price of gold have seen corresponding rise and falls in the Australian dollar.
As well as its relationship with gold, like the Canadian and the New Zealand dollars, the Australian dollar is a commodity currency. According to the Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resources Economic, commodity sales are expected to total AUD billion or about 55% of Australia’s exports, hence any movements in commodity prices will effect the Australian dollar. Expectation over the next few years is for a gradual easing of world economic growth, which should see the price of Australian commodities average lower and result in downward pressure on the Australian dollar especially in late 2006/2007. It should however be noted, that there is considerable uncertainty in predicting Australian dollar movements since it can be significantly influenced by a change in market sentiment. Since the floating of the Australian dollar in 1983, the currency has fluctuated in an average range of 10 cents a year.


Dollar-euro currency With Sigma Forex




This article provides an overview of the factors affecting the leading currency pair: Euro-dollar exchange, commonly expressed as EUR/USD.
The euro to dollar exchange rate is the price at which the world demand for US dollars equals the world supply of euros. Regardless of geographical origin, a rise in the world demand for euros leads to an appreciation of the euro.
Factors affecting exchange rates Four factors are identified as fundamental determinants of the real euro to dollar exchange rate:
§ The international real interest rate differential
§ Relative prices in the traded and non-traded goods sectors
§ The real oil price
§ The relative fiscal position
The nominal bilateral dollar to euro exchange is the exchange rate that attracts the most attention. Notwithstanding the comparative importance of euro to US dollar bilateral trade links, trade with the UK is, to some extent, more important for the Euro zone than is trade with the US. The dollar and the euro have a strong predisposition to run together in the very short run, but sometimes there can be significant discrepancies. The very strong appreciation of the dollar against the euro in 2003 is one example of these discrepancies.
In the long run, the correlation between the bilateral dollar to euro exchange rate, and different measures of the effective exchange rate of Euroland, has been rather high, especially if one looks at the effective real exchange rate. As inflation is at very similar levels in the US and the Euro area, there is no need to adjust the dollar to euro rate for inflation differentials, but because the Euro zone also trades intensively with countries that have relatively high inflation rates (e.g. some countries in Central and Eastern Europe, Turkey, etc.), it is more important to downplay nominal exchange rate measures by looking at relative price and cost developments.
The fall of the dollar The steady and orderly decline of the dollar from early 2002 to early 2004 against the euro, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and a few other currencies (i.e., its trade-weighted average, which is what counts for purposes of trade adjustment), while significant, has still only amounted to about 10 percent.
There are two reasons why concerns about a free fall of the dollar should not be worth consideration. The first is that the US external deficit will stay high only if US growth remains vigorous. But if the US continues to grow strongly, it will also retain a strong attraction for foreign capital, which should support the dollar. The second reason is that the attempts by the monetary authorities in Asia to keep their currencies weak will probably not work.
The basic theories underlying the dollar to euro exchange rate: Law of One Price: In competitive markets free of transportation cost barriers to trade, identical products sold in different countries must sell at the same price when the prices are stated in terms of the same currency.
Interest rate effects: If capital is allowed to flow freely, exchange rates become stable at a point where equality of interest is established.
The dual forces of supply and demand determine euro vs. dollar exchange rates. Various factors affect these two forces, which in turn affect the exchange rates:
The business environment: Positive indications (in terms of government policy, competitive advantages, market size, etc.) increase the demand for the currency, as more and more enterprises want to invest there.
Stock market: The major stock indices also have a correlation with the currency rates.
Political factors: All exchange rates are susceptible to political instability and anticipations about the new government. For example, political or financial instability in Russia is also a flag for the euro to US dollar exchange because of the substantial amount of German investments directed to Russia.
Economic data: Economic data such as labor reports (payrolls, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings), consumer price indices (CPI), producer price indices (PPI), gross domestic product (GDP), international trade, productivity, industrial production, consumer confidence etc., also affect fluctuations in currency exchange rates.
Confidence in a currency is the greatest determinant of the real euro-dollar exchange rate. Decisions are made based on expected future developments that may affect the currency. A EUR/USD exchange can operate under one of four main types of exchange rate systems:
Fully fixed exchange rates In a fixed exchange rate system, the government (or the central bank acting on its behalf) intervenes in the currency market in order to keep the exchange rate close to a fixed target. It is committed to a single fixed exchange rate and does not allow major fluctuations from this central rate.
Semi-fixed exchange rates Currency can move inside permitted ranges of fluctuation. The exchange rate is the dominant target of economic policy-making, interest rates are set to meet the target and the exchange rate is given a specific target.
Free floating The value of the currency is determined solely by market supply and demand forces in the foreign exchange market. Trade flows and capital flows are the main factors affecting the exchange rate. A floating exchange rate system: Monetary system in which exchange rates are allowed to move due to market forces without intervention by national governments. For example, the Bank of England does not actively intervene in the currency markets to achieve a desired exchange rate level. With floating exchange rates, changes in market demand and supply cause a currency to change in value. Pure free floating exchange rates are rare - most governments at one time or another seek to "manage" the value of their currency through changes in interest rates and other controls.
Managed floating exchange rates Governments normally engage in managed floating if not part of a fixed exchange rate system.
The advantages of fixed exchange rates are the disadvantages of floating rates: Fixed rates provide greater certainty for exporters and importers and, under normal circumstances, there is less speculative activity - although this depends on whether the dealers in the foreign exchange markets regard a given fixed exchange rate as appropriate and credible.
Advantages of floating exchange ratesFluctuations in the exchange rate can provide an automatic adjustment for countries with a large balance of payments deficit. A second key advantage of floating exchange rates is that it gives the government/monetary authorities flexibility in determining interest rates.

The explosion of the Euro market With Sigma Forex




The rapid development of the Eurodollar market, where US dollars are deposited in banks outside the US, was a major mechanism for speeding up Forex trading. Likewise, Euro markets are those where assets are deposited outside the currency of origin.
The Eurodollar market first came into being in the 1950s when the Soviet Union's oil revenue -- all in US dollars -- was being deposited outside the US in fear of being frozen by US regulators. This resulted in a vast offshore pool of dollars outside the control of US authorities. The US government therefore imposed laws to restrict dollar lending to foreigners. Euro markets then became particularly attractive because they had fewer regulations and offered higher yields. From the late 1980s onwards, US companies began to borrow offshore, finding Euro markets an advantageous place for holding excess liquidity, providing short-term loans and financing imports and exports.
London was and remains the principal offshore market. In the 1980s, it became the key center in the Eurodollar market when British banks began lending dollars as an alternative to pounds in order to maintain their leading position in global finance. London's convenient geographical location (operating during Asian and American markets) is also instrumental in preserving its dominance in the Euro market.